A Totally Nonsensical Guide to Predicting the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score for xXx: Return of Xander Cage

I want to start off by saying that I am rooting for xXx: Return of Xander Cage to succeed because the world needs a superhero who dirt bikes on top of water and skis down heavily forested mountains. Watch the trailer and you will be hoping the movie is a lot of fun as well.

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The following prediction is a collection of random scores that may or may not predict the RT critical score. I’m putting my reputation on the line and this prediction could make or break me.

I’m predicting  xXx: Return of Xander Cage will have a 36% score as of Monday 01/23. Here is how I came to that conclusion

1. I averaged the RT scores of xXx, The Last Witch Hunter, Babylon A.D., A Man Apart, Pitch Black, The Chronicles of Riddick and Riddick and 32.5% was the result. The most interesting aspect of the data is that Riddick had the highest score of the bunch. Its 58% RT score outperformed Pitch Black (57%) and XXX (48%). This could mean good news for xXx: Return of Xander Cage.
2. Director DJ. Caruso’s wide release films have an average RT rating of 28.6%. Taking Lives, Two for the Money, Disturbia, Eagle Eye, The Disappointments Room and I Am Number Four did not do well with critics. The only fresh rating belonged to Disturbia and its 69%
3. Since the new xXx film features an insane Dirt bike as a jet ski action scene I decided to add in my famed calculations for jet ski action scenes into the mix. Movies that feature jet ski action scenes have an average 29% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Listen to the podcast here! 
4. The average rating of  third films in recent/similar action films have an average RT rating of 33.1%. Transporter 3, The Expendables 3, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Blade: Trinity, Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 3, Taken 3 and Tokyo Drift were aided greatly by the 93% of The Bourne Ultimatum. 

The average of these four scores is 30.8%. Normally, I would just use this score as my prediction. However, since Riddick was the third film and had a 58% RT score I’m gonna add another five points to the overall score. Thus, the final product is 35.8% (rounded to 36%) which is higher than the average of Vin’s other action films that he headlined.

Random data says that xXx: Return of Xander Cage will not do well with critics. Let’s hope I’m wrong and it wins him his first Oscar.