MFF Special: Using Unreliable Data to Predict the Rotten Tomatoes Score of Baywatch

Hello all. Mark here.

I love using somewhat relevant data to predict a films Rotten Tomatoes score. The data isn’t exact and only somewhat reliable, but I enjoy seeing if old trends and actors/directors averages can somewhat predict the success of a film. I don’t have flowcharts, abacuses or an around the clock crew of rogue movie predictors working furiously in a dimly lit office. I have a will to scour through Rotten Tomatoes, Google and Youtube in an effort to have a solid data that predicts unimportant things.

I predicted XXX: The Return of Xander Cage would have a 36% RT Score and was pleasantly surprised when it received 43%. I actually wanted to add five more points to the finished product but I went against my Vin-O-Meter and ended up short. This time I’m trying to predict the RT score of Baywatch.

• I brought back my Jet Action Scene data because Baywatch features JS action. Jet ski action scenes are the worst and they average 29% on Rotten Tomatoes. Listen to our podcast to learn more.
• I collected the RT scores of recent comedic television adaptations. Aside from 21 & 22 Jump Street (85, 84), television adaptations haven’t done well with the critics. The overall average is 45.6% and only 21 & 22 Jump Street, Charlie’s Angels, Starsky & Hutch and The Man From U.N.C.L.E have fresh averages. Bewitched, Get Smart, Land of the Lost, Dukes of Hazard and The A-Team (and more) were not loved by the RT critics.
• Between The Fast & the Furious, G.I. Joe, Be Cool, Journey 2, Scorpion King, Get Smart, Walking Tall, Race to WitchMountain and Hercules, The Rock loves stepping into a preexisting material. Thus, I averaged out the scores and came up with 50.3% average
• Zac Efron’s recent comedic films have been up and down on RT. Neighbors 1 & 2 are fresh (73%, 62%) whereas Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (35), That Awkward Moment (23) and Bad Grandpa (11) are pretty rotten. The uneven comedies lead to a 40.8% average. It’s not good, but it could be a lot worse.
• Seth Gordon exploded onto the scene with the brilliant documentary The King of Kong (97%). The documentary about Donkey Kong catapulted him into directing big budget comedies Four Christmases (25%), Horrible Bosses (68%), Identity Thief (19%) and now Baywatch. His four films have an average of 52.25%. You need to watch The King of Kong now!

The average of these five categories is 42.32%. Normally I’d be happy to bestow that average on a film that features jet ski action scenes. However, the movie looks really funny and it features the beloved Dwayne Johnson. So, I’m going to add another 20 points to the average and boost it into fresh territory with a 62.32% average. I’m putting my reputation on the line with this score but I’m sticking to it.

Final Rotten Tomatoes average for Baywatch – 62.32%